I only live in Shaun Bailey's constituency, so naturally I don't know much about his defeat, BUT, the presence of the Labour campaign was distinctly limited and all other parties were practically invisible.
What was not invisible was armfuls of propaganda from the Tories. Several times each week during the campaign I had leaflets, personalised leaflets, and letters from 30 Millbank which turned out to be from the Conservatives Central Office (a useful thing to know if, like me you are reluctant to open mail from unknown sources, once that was established I binned the rest). The extent of the Tory campaign was such that they must have spent several times the amount of all the other parties in the area together.
Sadly I wouldn't have been able to support Shaun Bailey anyway, but in view of the level of the Tory campaign I wonder if they didn't succeed in annoying voters rather than convincing them that they should have voted Tory.
I was in fact convinced that he would win and didn't even bother to check, so it came as a great surprise to me when I found out. By the measures used by the BBC it wasn't even a near miss, it was a surprisingly poor result for the Conservatives in a constituency which should be highly marginal.
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